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Natural-gas prices have been low this winter, helped by healthy production and unusually warm weather. The current winter storm could change that temporarily, but the long-term forecast is still for more cheap gas for U.S. consumers—at least for the rest of this year.

The U.S. entered this winter heating season with the most natural gas in storage since 2020. It is still looking well stocked: As of the week ended Jan. 5, there were about 3.3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in storage, 12% higher than the trailing five-year average, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Even though the cold snap has helped move natural-gas prices up 7.9% year to date to $2.51 per million British thermal units, they remain about 21% below year-earlier levels. Since November, the U.S. has been withdrawing natural gas from storage at a rate that is 28% lower than the trailing five-year average, according to the EIA.

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